2009-06-26

Second rate exponential


(image updated 20090710)

Here, we see the second stage of the exponential rate, this time, it is not as scary, but I'm about 4 weeks away from not being able to safely catch the train (around 1 Aug 2009).

However, I would really like to know why the numbers suddenly changed rate? (Any straight line is still exponential, it is just that the rate of the exponential is lower)

It is the equivalent now of: (based on 10^(1/7) rate of growth) :

Only one in two people infect one other person (the other infects none).

Which is a bit of a change from every person was infecting 4 other people.

Could the media and bulletins have suddenly made that much difference?

Are my thoughts pseudo random?

Pseudo clearly means that they aren't truly random, and I can prove it:

http://nitish.blogspot.com/

2009-06-04

A/H1N1 LCCaus Exponential



The current trend line is : 10-fold increase in 10 days.

This means that in 20 days, it is a 100-fold increase

This also means that if the "infectious period is 7 days", then there is a 10^(7/10) fold increase in 7 days = 5-fold

This means each infected person is infecting:
5-1 = 4 people each.

Tiananmen Square

"On June 4 1989, troops backed by tanks opened fire on unarmed civilians. It brought a bloody and brutal end to weeks of protests by students and others demanding, amongst other things, a crackdown on corruption in China."
-- ABC News Website

There were early reports of Chinese Red Cross sources giving a figure of 2,600 deaths, but the Chinese Red Cross has denied ever doing so. The official Chinese government figure is 241 dead, including soldiers, and 7,000 wounded.
-- Wikipedia

(real history)

I think I am from the planet Zorg

I need sleep, just the same as most people, however the frequency is wrong.

I find that a typical day goes like this:
  • Restless sleep full of dreams, eventually waking, reluctantly and discovering it is really time to get up - denial doesn't help.
  • Crawl out of bed, children yelling, yelling at each other, being yelled at by me, and then children yelling at me (some people have been left out of this sentence).
  • Some sort of shower/breakfast/cup of tea/getting dressed sequence and eventually;
  • I find myself walking (running) to the train, which usually arrives and takes me (even more usually) to the same place.
  • At work I wait as long as possible to have a coffee (usually 2 minutes) and once the coffee clan does the frogger/coffee line/frogger thing I am ;
  • READY TO GO! (This can range from 8am to 11(and a bit)am depending on diversions not included in this analysis - (dont get me started on school driving)).
  • Lunch severely dints the days activities.
  • After the after-lunch sleepyness is over, I'm
  • REALLY READY TO GO!
  • Soon various phone calls suggest that there are emergencies enough at home to warrant that either I or 100 specially trained armed forces should help;
  • So, feeling that it is really easier that I attend,
  • I head home.
  • Anarchy.
  • Everyone is in bed now, I think I can get some work done... [ready to go! - this time for sure!]
  • STOP TYPING SO LOUD!!!!
  • Better go to bed.
Now, with the occasional work disaster, all this plus 10 hours of work starting at about 10pm has been known to happen. Funny thing is, it would all work, if only the day were 34 hours long. Sleep time can be lengthened appropriately to suit.

So, I miss the planet Zorg, where the Suns rise in the North once every 34 earth-hours, I feel however, it is in my blood though, or more exactly - in my circadian rhythm circuits.

Na nu, Na nu.

2009-06-03

No thought

I have no thoughts today, I am much too busy.

Although it is a very random day.