2009-06-26

Second rate exponential


(image updated 20090710)

Here, we see the second stage of the exponential rate, this time, it is not as scary, but I'm about 4 weeks away from not being able to safely catch the train (around 1 Aug 2009).

However, I would really like to know why the numbers suddenly changed rate? (Any straight line is still exponential, it is just that the rate of the exponential is lower)

It is the equivalent now of: (based on 10^(1/7) rate of growth) :

Only one in two people infect one other person (the other infects none).

Which is a bit of a change from every person was infecting 4 other people.

Could the media and bulletins have suddenly made that much difference?

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