LCCaus A-H1N1-09 tracking

LCCaus A-H1N1-09 tracking the exponential

Inf A H1N1 in Australia

I have done a calculation - all data in julian dates and logs...

We have 43 days (now to 8 July 2009).

In 60 days, 1 person of every train full of people (400) will have swine flu (plus and minus a whole heap of factors of course)
- this is based on this simple calculation:

days_from_epoch

= (2454977.95833-2454960.5) * 4.736
-----------
1.643

Which is

• The number of days from patient 0 (Aus) to latest figures (today)
• Multiplied by Log10 (1 in 400 * Australian Population)
• Divided by Log10(latest figures)
  

Assumes (for want of more data points) a linear graph when plotting logarithmic figures.
The latest answer is actually 50 days, but using slightly older figures (previous) it gets more optimistic 60 days.

Now, a linear graph of logarithmic values means exponential increase, which, is just what it will be in the early stages.

At one person in every full train, that means if you catch the train you are exposed (potentially). At this point it would be a good idea not to catch the train, bus, go to school or work even.

A wiki posting has a graph which shows that the spread may not be exponential : see http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Influenza-2009-cases-logarithmic.png, if it were these graph lines would be a straight line, however they are curving down, and perhaps will become asymptotic to the eventual end result. What would cause this is not clear, unless there is a inbuilt resistance or resilience to this flu.

North Korean government about to crumble?

Nuclear test... Missiles...

Is it true the North Korean government is about to crumble?

I think it won't last to 2010... Time will tell.

If the power hold and the nation is truly in a critical state - all it takes is one more destabilisation, such as Inf A H1N1 and

chk chk....

AFL Flu?

The Fremantle Dockers AFL team have been exposed to the Swine Flu (flight from Melbourne to WA with one confirmed passenger case), what would happen if any get any flu like symptoms at all - could this be the first Forfeit since 1909 (VFL) when St Kilda fielded a suspended player and forfeited their 4 points. Would the AFL step in and give them some concession, there is no way that they would allow them to spread this to the other AFL teams...

Anyway, good hard work by the Lions, didn't quite get there any the end against the Sainters, however, considering their 1909 infringement I think they have some amends to make.

Sherman was a star again, a goal in the opening minutes of the last quarter looking to do some damage - chk chk boom! The Lions were up with 3 minutes to go until the final siren, when Milne popped up with a couple of goals - he's done that before against the Lions (I'm sure he's suspended - I call for a forfeit!!).

Go Lions!!!!

Votocracy Thought Experiment

Votocracy (it gets hits from google - though I haven't read them), is in my mind this:

Votocracy - The system of government of a state where all the power and decisions of the state are "voted" by every citizen in a one-vote one-value basis.

This might be an extreme form of democracy, however, my gut feel is that it cannot work, and I hope to provide proof, by example.

In a votocracy, the money supply will be controlled by vote.
Our "general public", perhaps tempted by hard times (given the perhaps recent overthrow of the democratic regime), will "vote" to increase the money in circulation, and vote to increase the now more centralised banking systems availability to loan this money out. Shortly after, a vote to reduce, if not abolish taxes will win.

At this point - the pure "goodness" of the society will bit on the tipping point of pure anarchy, but initially things will be good, if only for a number of weeks.

But, it is a votocracy, so a new vote is ever at the ready. The first signs of problems are the disadvantaged, with a minority vote.

... to be continued...

Stone the Crows

I missed the first quarter (heard it on the radio), so I witnessed an arm-wrestle 2nd, and two great quarters to see the Lions take (albeit briefly perhaps) 4th place on the ladder.

Braddy kicked the club record, and again, and then again.

Great goal to Brown, when a defender attempted a mark, 97% of the ball went over the goal line, and it dropped back into play (it never went out) and Brownie picked it up and checkside snapped it for a goal. That was the sealer!

Earlier, Black took the ball on the 50m, bourked around a defender and slotted it through from about 30m near the boundary, the straightest kick of the night, (Braddy excluded as always) - and from the master of the wobbly kick.

I gave Riscittelli a congratulatory slap on the arm and some random compliment, when he gave out the signature footies to the kids (and one of our herd), I think he was a bit surprised, I'm glad he didn't give me one back.

Voss is the Boss!

Voice gone.

Dream Sequence #2

For the second night in a row, I'm moving, to the same Old House with new Floor.

This time I had to evict a very angry light-grey cat that remained behind. It was extremely grumpy and swearing, threatening bodily harm on me as I grabbed it by the scruff of the neck. I've never heard a cat swear so much.

I will have to ask my wife if she noticed anything odd last night, or if she perhaps was swearing at me for any reason...

All's well that ends in the trees

12m up and 5 meters laterally in trees, above a creek, where the sides drop away another 5 meters is a serious predicament.

This was a result of a conversation like this:

"Watch those, trees... you're on the other side of those trees, get it back... don't worry about the tree now, just fly....."

Craaaananananaaack!

I have yet to see him land this aircraft, but I'm told he has landed it successfully before, oh well, this must have been another one that got away.

Well at least it seemed pseudo-opertational whilst in a very distorted state at height (sans prop.). I couldn't stick around, though I'm told a friend in the ladders and cabling game helped retrieve it (I'm glad I wasn't there as I'm sure I would not have approved of the operation).

Off to the Office

(This includes the memory hook, which is a location in the house)

• 1 [Baby room] - Pass
• 2 [Main room] - Mobile
• 3 [West room] - Wallet
• 4 [Bathroom.] - Palm Pilot
• 5 [Kitchen..] - Keys
• 5A["""""""..] - Camera
• 6 [Dinning..] - Reading or Data
• 7 [Lounge...] - Glasses
• 8 [Stairs...] - Watch (don't have one at the moment)
  
• 9 [Laundry..] - Belt?? (I no longer check 7,8,9 and have forgotten what it was)
  
• 10 [Garage..] - Train money
  
• 11 [Garden..] - Lunch
• 12 [Road....] - Umbrella
• 13 [Street..] - Hat
• 14 [........] - Coffee Money
• 15 [........] - Alarm On
• 16 [........] - Water
• 17 [........] - Cheques for Bank

Low Laying Fruit

We have an analogy at work for the tasks that need to be done, it is working quite well, but it does have its quirks:

• Low laying fruit - Easy work that can be picked off and done without too much fuss. Good for a "dispondency" day where politics have got the better of everyone.
• Coconuts - Quite a tall, difficult to embrace amount of work that could hit you on the head in a bad way.
• Fruit salad - Required fare for those that just can't pick the fruit themselves, and need it served up into something really easy.
• Fruit salad, I don't like those red bits, or the pineapples - Some are just so fussy they won't even do the fruit salad work.
• Pineapples - Good easy to grab work of significant weight, but beware of the rough end.
• Amino Acids - Not just necessary work, but fundamental to everything else.
• Peanuts - What they pay you with.
• Low Laying Coconuts - Quite an exaggeration, there isn't such a thing.
• Bananas - Monkey fruit.
• Lemons - We all have to do this sometime, just suck it and see.
• Wild Lemons up high - Beware the thorny tree to get there
• Fruit Bowl - Carefully selected fruit in a convenient bowl for people to take freely
• Fruit Loop - What will happen to you after eating too much fruit/working too long.
  
• Fruit Loops - Repeating work, that isn't really fixed properly.
  
• Fruiterer - Boss or kindly work delegator.
  
• Kitchen Mulch - All those jobs that have gone to waste.

Nintendo School

I'm no longer sending my daughter to school, she is being trained with a Nintendo DS. She's doing pretty well as her brain age is now 51, just think of how many years she's up on everyone else!

Actually, school's off now. NDS has been confiscated.

Hmmm, now what.

k - - K
- U u -
k m M M
- m K -
...
>>14985179091> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P++ (4,2)p+++ Turn 14 Finished result=--[P2]
Best Result P2win on turn 14 for player 2
>>14985179091> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P++ (4,2)p 6 to 5
Best Result P2win on turn 14 for player 2
>>14985269535> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (2,1)x 5 to 5
>>14986000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (2,1)x (1,4)K+ (4,2)a (3,1)X (4,1)x (2,2)X (4,4)k 6 to 5
>>14987000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (3,1)x (4,2)S+ (1,4)s+ (2,3)X (2,1)x (1,3)X (4,4)p 6 to 6
>>14988000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (4,1)x (4,2)P+ (1,4)a+ (3,3)X (3,2)x (3,1)X (4,4)s 6 to 6
>>14989000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (1,2)x (4,2)A+ (4,4)k (3,2)X (1,3)x (2,2)X (1,4)s 6 to 5
>>14990000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (2,2)x (4,3)X (3,1)x (4,4)S+ (4,2)p (1,2)X (1,4)a 6 to 5
>>14991000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (3,2)x (2,3)X (1,4)s+ (4,4)P+ (3,4)x (4,2)K 6 to 6
...
That nearly 15 billion permutations, and it is no where near finished, running since Saturday, 13 hrs CPU (2.4GHz).

Thought # 7 - Perfect World

In a perfect world - we would all be perfectionists.

PS - 06 May 2009

Search Strategy

I have thought about search strategies and have realised there are concepts that should be taken into consideration:

• Aiming for Unavoidable Outcomes
  When choosing a move, the best path is one in which the opponent cannot do any legal move to avoid a certain outcome (i.e. you win). Permutation analysis can show at what point an unavoidable outcome occurs, and allows you to choose that path.
  
  
• Draws
  When attempting to search for the best move, there may be a choose between a possible win/possible loss, or a unavoidable-draw. This is where the notion of Game within a Series comes into play. If a draw is helpful, then an unavoidable-draw is a good option.
  
  
• Multi-paths
  Most probably, multiple paths that lead to good possible outcomes may exist. On paper, these paths are equally good, or bad depending on what the opponent does.
  
  
• Trick Paths
  However, some paths may lead to board configuration where your intended path is obscured, and might lead them to making the incorrect move - which is the path to your desired outcome. Calculating obscurity is extremely subjective, and also needs to incorporate opponent play style and opponents knowledge of configurations.
  
  
• Subset-branch searches
  Doing exhaustive (brute force) searches earlier in the game require billions of permutations, and at a certain point become effectively impossible in any realistic amount of time. However, if the idea for a program to play the game, then it can effectively limit every second branch to a very small subset of moves, or perhaps even only a couple of moves, which are effectively the move that it would play in that given configuration. This would allow calculations for perhaps up to 10 moves from the end, rather than six - in the same timeframe (and permutation count). Ten moves from the end of a 16 move (spaces) game means the brute force calculations can commence only three turns each into the game.
  
  

From Turn 12

Turn twelve...
Still calculating scoring possibilities:
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 0 at perm=0
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 0 at perm=1
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 0 at perm=4191
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 1 at perm=66706
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 2 at perm=66714
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 3 at perm=66851
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 4 at perm=66859
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 5 at perm=66891
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 6 at perm=1582253769

Currently at :
>>1667000000> 12) (1,1)A (2,1)a (4,3)A (1,2)x (3,4)A (4,4)k (1,4)X (4,1)p 7 to 0

That is the 1.667 billion permutation mark, and so far it has only found the 7-6 possibility, I know it can find an 7-7, lets see if it can find more.

No.... It has bugs, it is missing whole sets of possibilities... back to the drawing board... sheet...

Okay : FIXED! ...
Running more permutations...

Scoring Possibilities

Continuing the game analysis...

Scoring has been added in, and its permutations - probably needs some thorough bug checking but I'm running it anyway:

Of course, it is slower, so from Turn 14, P2 to play:
(This is just after P2 springs his Universal, and P1 zaps it)

>>138000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (-1,0)- (-1,0)- (3,3)S (0,3)X (0,0)S (3,0)P (2,2)X (3,2)A (1,0)S
>>138512236> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (-1,0)- (-1,0)-

138,512,236 permutations including scoring:
Of these these, the possible detected score were:

PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 5 Perm=0
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 6 Perm=18
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 5 Perm=1649
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 5 Perm=4537
PLAYERS Scores P1 10 P2 5 Perm=177858
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 7 Perm=848033

What does this mean? P2 cannot win from this position*. However, there are possible games in which P2 can draw with P1.

What have I said here, if my program logic is correct, I have proved a non-winnable game from turn 14 with 5 spaces to fill.

However, I will look further into the draw scenarios and see if there are unblockable draws, which would be good for P2.

Oooooh.... What is this (P2 to play):
>>1399375> 14) (1,1)A (4,1)k (4,3)K (4,4)k (2,1)P++ 7 to 7

I haven't check to see if it is blockable, but definitely trickable!
--------------------------
Further score analysis performed:
From Turn 14
Permutations 171,752,046
P1 WINS:
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 5 at perm=0 num=56695680
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 6 at perm=18 num=80227554
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 5 at perm=1629 num=10785420
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 6 at perm=7590 num=19356059
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 7 at perm=2299977 num=278220
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 5 at perm=4505 num=269412
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 6 at perm=11130 num=524411
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 7 at perm=2302634 num=9274
PLAYERS Scores P1 10 P2 5 at perm=191669 num=5760
PLAYERS Scores P1 10 P2 6 at perm=201174 num=6944
P2 WINS: (none)
DRAWS:
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 7 at perm=880046 num=3593312

So, I couldn't win from Turn 14, but there was a chance at a blockable-draw.
A good move might have been:

>>45445675> 14) (2,1)P (3,4)x (4,3)K+ (4,1)k (1,1)A+ Turn 18 Finished result=-(D)-

The draw unblockable from Turn 18 (one more space left).
I did think about this, in general, during the game. I instead played a single for Turn 14 (2,1)S, this was a mistake (I haven't checked but I think a loosing move). As long as certain positions are free, a number of combinations end in a draw.

A Game Instance Analysed

The Lions trouncing Bombers - Analysed?

Yes, a very good game, very enjoyable, but not the game I am talking about.

Hyperion DJTvPGS20090430-1(Game-3-Series-4x4-1)

Permutation analysis from Turn 10 - leads to approximately 200,000,000,000 permutations (upper limit). This is currently being worked out by a program, it is, I estimate, half way through. It is computing at 1.3M permutations (without scoring) per second. I estimate that will slow by a factor of 10 with scoring.

>>96895000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (3,2)P (1,0)S (0,0)K (1,1)X (0,0)X (0,3)K (3,0)K (2,3)K (3,3)S
>>96896000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (3,2)P (1,0)S (0,0)K (3,2)X (3,3)P (2,3)K (1,2)X (0,3)P (3,0)K
>>96897000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (3,2)P (1,0)S (0,0)K (0,3)S (0,3)X (1,0)X (3,0)A (3,3)K (2,3)S

It also is an upperlimit as the Neutralise* piece is being used on every piece, not just scored pieces.

Turn 9 was when Player 1 sprung the Universal, and at the end of the turn the scores were 6-0. Currently, the series stands at DJT 2 - PGS 1. PGS leads the next game, and the pressure will be on to level the series.

Stage 2 of this program (when written) will also calculate all permutations of scores. This will be interesting.
....
Now at :
>>133850000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (2,3)K (0,0)S (1,0)A (3,2)S (3,3)K (3,0)S (0,0)X (2,0)X (0,3)S
>>133851000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (2,3)K (0,0)S (1,0)A (0,3)S (3,0)S (2,1)X (2,0)X (3,3)S (3,2)S
>>133852000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (2,3)K (0,0)S (1,0)A (3,3)K (3,2)K (3,0)K (0,2)X (1,0)X (0,3)K
>>133853000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (2,3)K (0,0)S (1,0)K (1,0)X (3,3)S (3,0)S (2,3)X (0,3)S (3,2)S

Run finished!!!
167,434,999,200
That's 167 Billlllllliiooooon permutations!

Ubiquity, Networks and Pandemics

This is a reminder to have a thought on these...

Do we have a critical state network? Are you in one of the critical network regions?

Is six weeks worth of food really enough?