Inf A H1N1 in Australia

I have done a calculation - all data in julian dates and logs...

We have 43 days (now to 8 July 2009).

In 60 days, 1 person of every train full of people (400) will have swine flu (plus and minus a whole heap of factors of course)
- this is based on this simple calculation:

days_from_epoch

= (2454977.95833-2454960.5) * 4.736
-----------
1.643

Which is

• The number of days from patient 0 (Aus) to latest figures (today)
• Multiplied by Log10 (1 in 400 * Australian Population)
• Divided by Log10(latest figures)
  

Assumes (for want of more data points) a linear graph when plotting logarithmic figures.
The latest answer is actually 50 days, but using slightly older figures (previous) it gets more optimistic 60 days.

Now, a linear graph of logarithmic values means exponential increase, which, is just what it will be in the early stages.

At one person in every full train, that means if you catch the train you are exposed (potentially). At this point it would be a good idea not to catch the train, bus, go to school or work even.

A wiki posting has a graph which shows that the spread may not be exponential : see http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Influenza-2009-cases-logarithmic.png, if it were these graph lines would be a straight line, however they are curving down, and perhaps will become asymptotic to the eventual end result. What would cause this is not clear, unless there is a inbuilt resistance or resilience to this flu.