Chart explained:
You don't want to be a purple dot.
The blue line is confirmed cases in Australia.
Vertical axis is Log10, so a 6 means 1,000,000.
I suspect the actual cases could easily be 4 times (10^0.6) higher (only one in each family gets tested, and the others are assumed to have, but not confirmed to have the same thing). I also suspect only (at a guess) 1 in 3 people actually are getting to the testing stage. That puts the actual figure more than ten times the confirmed case figure.
As time goes on, there will be less and less ability to test everyone, so that factor will increase. By the time there are 1,000,000 actual cases (current and past), it could be safe to assume the confirmed cases will be about 50,000. The problem with the discrepancy is that the death rate is based on actual, not confirmed cases. With a 1 in 1000 death rate (assumption), then the deaths at 50,000 confirmed cases would be 1,000,000 / 1000 = 1,000 deaths (which makes it look like there are 1 in 50 deaths, which would not be true). When are we likely to reach this point : according to the graph: in 2 and 1/2 weeks (that is 9 August 2009).
Time will tell.
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