Second rate exponential

(image updated 20090710)

Here, we see the second stage of the exponential rate, this time, it is not as scary, but I'm about 4 weeks away from not being able to safely catch the train (around 1 Aug 2009).

However, I would really like to know why the numbers suddenly changed rate? (Any straight line is still exponential, it is just that the rate of the exponential is lower)

It is the equivalent now of: (based on 10^(1/7) rate of growth) :

Only one in two people infect one other person (the other infects none).

Which is a bit of a change from every person was infecting 4 other people.

Could the media and bulletins have suddenly made that much difference?

Are my thoughts pseudo random?

Pseudo clearly means that they aren't truly random, and I can prove it:

http://nitish.blogspot.com/

A/H1N1 LCCaus Exponential

The current trend line is : 10-fold increase in 10 days.

This means that in 20 days, it is a 100-fold increase

This also means that if the "infectious period is 7 days", then there is a 10^(7/10) fold increase in 7 days = 5-fold

This means each infected person is infecting:
5-1 = 4 people each.

Tiananmen Square

"On June 4 1989, troops backed by tanks opened fire on unarmed civilians. It brought a bloody and brutal end to weeks of protests by students and others demanding, amongst other things, a crackdown on corruption in China."
-- ABC News Website

There were early reports of Chinese Red Cross sources giving a figure of 2,600 deaths, but the Chinese Red Cross has denied ever doing so. The official Chinese government figure is 241 dead, including soldiers, and 7,000 wounded.
-- Wikipedia

(real history)

I think I am from the planet Zorg

I need sleep, just the same as most people, however the frequency is wrong.

I find that a typical day goes like this:

• Restless sleep full of dreams, eventually waking, reluctantly and discovering it is really time to get up - denial doesn't help.
• Crawl out of bed, children yelling, yelling at each other, being yelled at by me, and then children yelling at me (some people have been left out of this sentence).
• Some sort of shower/breakfast/cup of tea/getting dressed sequence and eventually;
• I find myself walking (running) to the train, which usually arrives and takes me (even more usually) to the same place.
• At work I wait as long as possible to have a coffee (usually 2 minutes) and once the coffee clan does the frogger/coffee line/frogger thing I am ;
• READY TO GO! (This can range from 8am to 11(and a bit)am depending on diversions not included in this analysis - (dont get me started on school driving)).
• Lunch severely dints the days activities.
• After the after-lunch sleepyness is over, I'm
• REALLY READY TO GO!
  
• Soon various phone calls suggest that there are emergencies enough at home to warrant that either I or 100 specially trained armed forces should help;
• So, feeling that it is really easier that I attend,
• I head home.
• Anarchy.
• Everyone is in bed now, I think I can get some work done... [ready to go! - this time for sure!]
  
• STOP TYPING SO LOUD!!!!
• Better go to bed.

Now, with the occasional work disaster, all this plus 10 hours of work starting at about 10pm has been known to happen. Funny thing is, it would all work, if only the day were 34 hours long. Sleep time can be lengthened appropriately to suit.

So, I miss the planet Zorg, where the Suns rise in the North once every 34 earth-hours, I feel however, it is in my blood though, or more exactly - in my circadian rhythm circuits.

Na nu, Na nu.

No thought

I have no thoughts today, I am much too busy.

Although it is a very random day.

LCCaus A-H1N1-09 tracking

LCCaus A-H1N1-09 tracking the exponential

Inf A H1N1 in Australia

I have done a calculation - all data in julian dates and logs...

We have 43 days (now to 8 July 2009).

In 60 days, 1 person of every train full of people (400) will have swine flu (plus and minus a whole heap of factors of course)
- this is based on this simple calculation:

days_from_epoch

= (2454977.95833-2454960.5) * 4.736
-----------
1.643

Which is

• The number of days from patient 0 (Aus) to latest figures (today)
• Multiplied by Log10 (1 in 400 * Australian Population)
• Divided by Log10(latest figures)
  

Assumes (for want of more data points) a linear graph when plotting logarithmic figures.
The latest answer is actually 50 days, but using slightly older figures (previous) it gets more optimistic 60 days.

Now, a linear graph of logarithmic values means exponential increase, which, is just what it will be in the early stages.

At one person in every full train, that means if you catch the train you are exposed (potentially). At this point it would be a good idea not to catch the train, bus, go to school or work even.

A wiki posting has a graph which shows that the spread may not be exponential : see http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Influenza-2009-cases-logarithmic.png, if it were these graph lines would be a straight line, however they are curving down, and perhaps will become asymptotic to the eventual end result. What would cause this is not clear, unless there is a inbuilt resistance or resilience to this flu.

North Korean government about to crumble?

Nuclear test... Missiles...

Is it true the North Korean government is about to crumble?

I think it won't last to 2010... Time will tell.

If the power hold and the nation is truly in a critical state - all it takes is one more destabilisation, such as Inf A H1N1 and

chk chk....

AFL Flu?

The Fremantle Dockers AFL team have been exposed to the Swine Flu (flight from Melbourne to WA with one confirmed passenger case), what would happen if any get any flu like symptoms at all - could this be the first Forfeit since 1909 (VFL) when St Kilda fielded a suspended player and forfeited their 4 points. Would the AFL step in and give them some concession, there is no way that they would allow them to spread this to the other AFL teams...

Anyway, good hard work by the Lions, didn't quite get there any the end against the Sainters, however, considering their 1909 infringement I think they have some amends to make.

Sherman was a star again, a goal in the opening minutes of the last quarter looking to do some damage - chk chk boom! The Lions were up with 3 minutes to go until the final siren, when Milne popped up with a couple of goals - he's done that before against the Lions (I'm sure he's suspended - I call for a forfeit!!).

Go Lions!!!!

Votocracy Thought Experiment

Votocracy (it gets hits from google - though I haven't read them), is in my mind this:

Votocracy - The system of government of a state where all the power and decisions of the state are "voted" by every citizen in a one-vote one-value basis.

This might be an extreme form of democracy, however, my gut feel is that it cannot work, and I hope to provide proof, by example.

In a votocracy, the money supply will be controlled by vote.
Our "general public", perhaps tempted by hard times (given the perhaps recent overthrow of the democratic regime), will "vote" to increase the money in circulation, and vote to increase the now more centralised banking systems availability to loan this money out. Shortly after, a vote to reduce, if not abolish taxes will win.

At this point - the pure "goodness" of the society will bit on the tipping point of pure anarchy, but initially things will be good, if only for a number of weeks.

But, it is a votocracy, so a new vote is ever at the ready. The first signs of problems are the disadvantaged, with a minority vote.

... to be continued...

Stone the Crows

I missed the first quarter (heard it on the radio), so I witnessed an arm-wrestle 2nd, and two great quarters to see the Lions take (albeit briefly perhaps) 4th place on the ladder.

Braddy kicked the club record, and again, and then again.

Great goal to Brown, when a defender attempted a mark, 97% of the ball went over the goal line, and it dropped back into play (it never went out) and Brownie picked it up and checkside snapped it for a goal. That was the sealer!

Earlier, Black took the ball on the 50m, bourked around a defender and slotted it through from about 30m near the boundary, the straightest kick of the night, (Braddy excluded as always) - and from the master of the wobbly kick.

I gave Riscittelli a congratulatory slap on the arm and some random compliment, when he gave out the signature footies to the kids (and one of our herd), I think he was a bit surprised, I'm glad he didn't give me one back.

Voss is the Boss!

Voice gone.

Dream Sequence #2

For the second night in a row, I'm moving, to the same Old House with new Floor.

This time I had to evict a very angry light-grey cat that remained behind. It was extremely grumpy and swearing, threatening bodily harm on me as I grabbed it by the scruff of the neck. I've never heard a cat swear so much.

I will have to ask my wife if she noticed anything odd last night, or if she perhaps was swearing at me for any reason...

All's well that ends in the trees

12m up and 5 meters laterally in trees, above a creek, where the sides drop away another 5 meters is a serious predicament.

This was a result of a conversation like this:

"Watch those, trees... you're on the other side of those trees, get it back... don't worry about the tree now, just fly....."

Craaaananananaaack!

I have yet to see him land this aircraft, but I'm told he has landed it successfully before, oh well, this must have been another one that got away.

Well at least it seemed pseudo-opertational whilst in a very distorted state at height (sans prop.). I couldn't stick around, though I'm told a friend in the ladders and cabling game helped retrieve it (I'm glad I wasn't there as I'm sure I would not have approved of the operation).

Off to the Office

(This includes the memory hook, which is a location in the house)

• 1 [Baby room] - Pass
• 2 [Main room] - Mobile
• 3 [West room] - Wallet
• 4 [Bathroom.] - Palm Pilot
• 5 [Kitchen..] - Keys
• 5A["""""""..] - Camera
• 6 [Dinning..] - Reading or Data
• 7 [Lounge...] - Glasses
• 8 [Stairs...] - Watch (don't have one at the moment)
  
• 9 [Laundry..] - Belt?? (I no longer check 7,8,9 and have forgotten what it was)
  
• 10 [Garage..] - Train money
  
• 11 [Garden..] - Lunch
• 12 [Road....] - Umbrella
• 13 [Street..] - Hat
• 14 [........] - Coffee Money
• 15 [........] - Alarm On
• 16 [........] - Water
• 17 [........] - Cheques for Bank

Low Laying Fruit

We have an analogy at work for the tasks that need to be done, it is working quite well, but it does have its quirks:

• Low laying fruit - Easy work that can be picked off and done without too much fuss. Good for a "dispondency" day where politics have got the better of everyone.
• Coconuts - Quite a tall, difficult to embrace amount of work that could hit you on the head in a bad way.
• Fruit salad - Required fare for those that just can't pick the fruit themselves, and need it served up into something really easy.
• Fruit salad, I don't like those red bits, or the pineapples - Some are just so fussy they won't even do the fruit salad work.
• Pineapples - Good easy to grab work of significant weight, but beware of the rough end.
• Amino Acids - Not just necessary work, but fundamental to everything else.
• Peanuts - What they pay you with.
• Low Laying Coconuts - Quite an exaggeration, there isn't such a thing.
• Bananas - Monkey fruit.
• Lemons - We all have to do this sometime, just suck it and see.
• Wild Lemons up high - Beware the thorny tree to get there
• Fruit Bowl - Carefully selected fruit in a convenient bowl for people to take freely
• Fruit Loop - What will happen to you after eating too much fruit/working too long.
  
• Fruit Loops - Repeating work, that isn't really fixed properly.
  
• Fruiterer - Boss or kindly work delegator.
  
• Kitchen Mulch - All those jobs that have gone to waste.

Nintendo School

I'm no longer sending my daughter to school, she is being trained with a Nintendo DS. She's doing pretty well as her brain age is now 51, just think of how many years she's up on everyone else!

Actually, school's off now. NDS has been confiscated.

Hmmm, now what.

k - - K
- U u -
k m M M
- m K -
...
>>14985179091> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P++ (4,2)p+++ Turn 14 Finished result=--[P2]
Best Result P2win on turn 14 for player 2
>>14985179091> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P++ (4,2)p 6 to 5
Best Result P2win on turn 14 for player 2
>>14985269535> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (2,1)x 5 to 5
>>14986000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (2,1)x (1,4)K+ (4,2)a (3,1)X (4,1)x (2,2)X (4,4)k 6 to 5
>>14987000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (3,1)x (4,2)S+ (1,4)s+ (2,3)X (2,1)x (1,3)X (4,4)p 6 to 6
>>14988000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (4,1)x (4,2)P+ (1,4)a+ (3,3)X (3,2)x (3,1)X (4,4)s 6 to 6
>>14989000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (1,2)x (4,2)A+ (4,4)k (3,2)X (1,3)x (2,2)X (1,4)s 6 to 5
>>14990000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (2,2)x (4,3)X (3,1)x (4,4)S+ (4,2)p (1,2)X (1,4)a 6 to 5
>>14991000000> 11) (2,1)P++++ (3,1)p+++++(x5) (1,2)P+ (3,2)x (2,3)X (1,4)s+ (4,4)P+ (3,4)x (4,2)K 6 to 6
...
That nearly 15 billion permutations, and it is no where near finished, running since Saturday, 13 hrs CPU (2.4GHz).

Thought # 7 - Perfect World

In a perfect world - we would all be perfectionists.

PS - 06 May 2009

Search Strategy

I have thought about search strategies and have realised there are concepts that should be taken into consideration:

• Aiming for Unavoidable Outcomes
  When choosing a move, the best path is one in which the opponent cannot do any legal move to avoid a certain outcome (i.e. you win). Permutation analysis can show at what point an unavoidable outcome occurs, and allows you to choose that path.
  
  
• Draws
  When attempting to search for the best move, there may be a choose between a possible win/possible loss, or a unavoidable-draw. This is where the notion of Game within a Series comes into play. If a draw is helpful, then an unavoidable-draw is a good option.
  
  
• Multi-paths
  Most probably, multiple paths that lead to good possible outcomes may exist. On paper, these paths are equally good, or bad depending on what the opponent does.
  
  
• Trick Paths
  However, some paths may lead to board configuration where your intended path is obscured, and might lead them to making the incorrect move - which is the path to your desired outcome. Calculating obscurity is extremely subjective, and also needs to incorporate opponent play style and opponents knowledge of configurations.
  
  
• Subset-branch searches
  Doing exhaustive (brute force) searches earlier in the game require billions of permutations, and at a certain point become effectively impossible in any realistic amount of time. However, if the idea for a program to play the game, then it can effectively limit every second branch to a very small subset of moves, or perhaps even only a couple of moves, which are effectively the move that it would play in that given configuration. This would allow calculations for perhaps up to 10 moves from the end, rather than six - in the same timeframe (and permutation count). Ten moves from the end of a 16 move (spaces) game means the brute force calculations can commence only three turns each into the game.
  
  

From Turn 12

Turn twelve...
Still calculating scoring possibilities:
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 0 at perm=0
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 0 at perm=1
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 0 at perm=4191
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 1 at perm=66706
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 2 at perm=66714
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 3 at perm=66851
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 4 at perm=66859
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 5 at perm=66891
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 6 at perm=1582253769

Currently at :
>>1667000000> 12) (1,1)A (2,1)a (4,3)A (1,2)x (3,4)A (4,4)k (1,4)X (4,1)p 7 to 0

That is the 1.667 billion permutation mark, and so far it has only found the 7-6 possibility, I know it can find an 7-7, lets see if it can find more.

No.... It has bugs, it is missing whole sets of possibilities... back to the drawing board... sheet...

Okay : FIXED! ...
Running more permutations...

Scoring Possibilities

Continuing the game analysis...

Scoring has been added in, and its permutations - probably needs some thorough bug checking but I'm running it anyway:

Of course, it is slower, so from Turn 14, P2 to play:
(This is just after P2 springs his Universal, and P1 zaps it)

>>138000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (-1,0)- (-1,0)- (3,3)S (0,3)X (0,0)S (3,0)P (2,2)X (3,2)A (1,0)S
>>138512236> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (-1,0)- (-1,0)-

138,512,236 permutations including scoring:
Of these these, the possible detected score were:

PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 5 Perm=0
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 6 Perm=18
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 5 Perm=1649
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 5 Perm=4537
PLAYERS Scores P1 10 P2 5 Perm=177858
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 7 Perm=848033

What does this mean? P2 cannot win from this position*. However, there are possible games in which P2 can draw with P1.

What have I said here, if my program logic is correct, I have proved a non-winnable game from turn 14 with 5 spaces to fill.

However, I will look further into the draw scenarios and see if there are unblockable draws, which would be good for P2.

Oooooh.... What is this (P2 to play):
>>1399375> 14) (1,1)A (4,1)k (4,3)K (4,4)k (2,1)P++ 7 to 7

I haven't check to see if it is blockable, but definitely trickable!
--------------------------
Further score analysis performed:
From Turn 14
Permutations 171,752,046
P1 WINS:
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 5 at perm=0 num=56695680
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 6 at perm=18 num=80227554
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 5 at perm=1629 num=10785420
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 6 at perm=7590 num=19356059
PLAYERS Scores P1 8 P2 7 at perm=2299977 num=278220
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 5 at perm=4505 num=269412
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 6 at perm=11130 num=524411
PLAYERS Scores P1 9 P2 7 at perm=2302634 num=9274
PLAYERS Scores P1 10 P2 5 at perm=191669 num=5760
PLAYERS Scores P1 10 P2 6 at perm=201174 num=6944
P2 WINS: (none)
DRAWS:
PLAYERS Scores P1 7 P2 7 at perm=880046 num=3593312

So, I couldn't win from Turn 14, but there was a chance at a blockable-draw.
A good move might have been:

>>45445675> 14) (2,1)P (3,4)x (4,3)K+ (4,1)k (1,1)A+ Turn 18 Finished result=-(D)-

The draw unblockable from Turn 18 (one more space left).
I did think about this, in general, during the game. I instead played a single for Turn 14 (2,1)S, this was a mistake (I haven't checked but I think a loosing move). As long as certain positions are free, a number of combinations end in a draw.

A Game Instance Analysed

The Lions trouncing Bombers - Analysed?

Yes, a very good game, very enjoyable, but not the game I am talking about.

Hyperion DJTvPGS20090430-1(Game-3-Series-4x4-1)

Permutation analysis from Turn 10 - leads to approximately 200,000,000,000 permutations (upper limit). This is currently being worked out by a program, it is, I estimate, half way through. It is computing at 1.3M permutations (without scoring) per second. I estimate that will slow by a factor of 10 with scoring.

>>96895000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (3,2)P (1,0)S (0,0)K (1,1)X (0,0)X (0,3)K (3,0)K (2,3)K (3,3)S
>>96896000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (3,2)P (1,0)S (0,0)K (3,2)X (3,3)P (2,3)K (1,2)X (0,3)P (3,0)K
>>96897000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (3,2)P (1,0)S (0,0)K (0,3)S (0,3)X (1,0)X (3,0)A (3,3)K (2,3)S

It also is an upperlimit as the Neutralise* piece is being used on every piece, not just scored pieces.

Turn 9 was when Player 1 sprung the Universal, and at the end of the turn the scores were 6-0. Currently, the series stands at DJT 2 - PGS 1. PGS leads the next game, and the pressure will be on to level the series.

Stage 2 of this program (when written) will also calculate all permutations of scores. This will be interesting.
....
Now at :
>>133850000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (2,3)K (0,0)S (1,0)A (3,2)S (3,3)K (3,0)S (0,0)X (2,0)X (0,3)S
>>133851000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (2,3)K (0,0)S (1,0)A (0,3)S (3,0)S (2,1)X (2,0)X (3,3)S (3,2)S
>>133852000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (2,3)K (0,0)S (1,0)A (3,3)K (3,2)K (3,0)K (0,2)X (1,0)X (0,3)K
>>133853000000> 8)(-1,0)- (-1,0)- (2,3)K (0,0)S (1,0)K (1,0)X (3,3)S (3,0)S (2,3)X (0,3)S (3,2)S

Run finished!!!
167,434,999,200
That's 167 Billlllllliiooooon permutations!

Ubiquity, Networks and Pandemics

This is a reminder to have a thought on these...

Do we have a critical state network? Are you in one of the critical network regions?

Is six weeks worth of food really enough?

Thought # 6 - Bizarrely Predictable

There is a concept that I need to know the word for:

Completely and utterly ridiculous and incredible, yet strangely, completely and utterly predictable.

I think there must be a French word for it. But if anyone knows it, please tell me, I need to use this word at least twice a day.

Brokenness

My email is broken. My two (2) TWO! laptops are broken. My team got trounced.
Hmmm.

Idea # 1 - Arm Extension

I need this today.

A remote manipulator arm that is effectively an extension of your arm, able to be located distant from the operator. Complete with camera, and tactile feel feedback.

A pair of these arms would effectively allow me to do things at height, and perhaps three of these would allow an intricate method to clean the gutters and other such things.

I am tired of wearing fatigues.

Inventions in Thought

What is an invention in thought? An idea? A plan? A design? Much like Leonardo Di Vinci's sketched or described inventions, they are not patentable until built. However, I will call it an Invention Idea.

And I will list and describe these, so that someone can actual design and build them for me, and I can go to the shop and buy them.

Lost in the Sun and Spiral Dive

Debrief on RC incident 20090419-1-C-B

Event

• Spiral Dive from 150 feet.

Date/Time

• UU April 2009 10:30:00 (exact time to be determined)
  

Location

• Secondary flying location - UUU
  

Weather

• Very windy, with gusts exceeding 19 knots, changing direction from westerly to, at times, easterly
  

Aircraft

• Make model and type of A/C to be determined
  

Details of Aircraft

• All up weight 398g
  
• New brushless motor just installed (outrunner)
• Make and model and specification of motor to be determined
• Pitch and diameter of propeller to be determined
  
• Net thrust > 500g
• Slightly (incidental) off centre thrust - about 5 degrees to the left
  
• Weight and balance modified, tail wait of approximately 15g installed forward of vertical stabiliser
• C of G 25mm aft of leading edge (within limits)
  
• 11.1v LiPo fully charged
• Radio gear - digital 2.4GHz - DX6
  

Owner

• Mr UU-heli-man
  

Pilot in Command

• Mr UU-aero-man-not-too-windy
  

Other Mitigating Circumstances

• Little G was running around, creating a landing hazard which required the PIC to need to look out top and bottom
  

Description Prior to Event

• Aero configured in hangar
• New brushless and brushless ESC installed - checked out okay
• Motor held onto balsa with drilled screw
  
• Thrust slightly to the left (5 degrees) due to over pushing the motor onto balsa rod
  
• C of G moved aft by the application of plasticine weight fore of v. stab.
• Ground check okay
• Controls correct and proper movement
• Controls visually centred
  

Launch

• Full throttle, count "1-2-3-go"
  
• A/C hand launched by assistant - straight and level launch
  
• A/C airborne without too much trouble
• The A/C was difficult to handle in the fluky winds, with excessive aileron roll requiring constant correction
• Positioning the A/C was difficult - it was fairly constantly choosing its own path to fly
• Keeping altitude was easy - as excess thrust allowed it to climb near vertical, limited only by the ability to maintain the A/C attitude
• After around 3 minutes, the pilot considered attempting to try and get enough control to check the balancing of the A/C
  

Description of Event

• at T-10 seconds, the pilot attempted to initiate a down-wind (right to left (east to west)) pass, needing to turn the A/C 180 degrees to initiate the run
• the A/C was at about 100 feet and climbing - on initially 1/2 power
• at T-8 seconds the turn commenced, and additional power was applied (to full power) as the A/C became unmanageable
• the A/C climb at around 45 deg angle of climb to an altitude of around 300 feet at T-5 seconds
• the PIC was aware of the near vertical sun which was full (no clouds obscuring) - and was unable to bring the A/C under any control as it approached the suns direction at about T-4 seconds
• the PIC sheltered one eye and closed the other in order to try and keep visual on the A/C, and be able to pick it up post pass as soon as possible
• the A/C passed over the sun at T-3 seconds, also achieving maximum altitude of 350 feet as power was cut
• at T-2.5 seconds the PIC regained visual on the A/C which was proceeding to the northern outer permitter in with an attitude that was not initially determined
• at T-2.0 seconds the aircraft adopted a nose done, proceeding to vertical nose down attitude, with the PIC still not having positive control
• at T-1.5 seconds the A/C was nose down vertical, accelerating, and exactly on the edge of the boundry, although it appeared to be slightly beyond
• at T-1.0 seconds - at this point the PIC applied full back stick (elevator) - instintively - which only increase the speed - the A/C was in a tight near vertical spiral dive, estimated speed was at least 20 meters per second (70 km/h)
  
• the actual speed of rotation was not conciously realised until a few seconds later, but it was around two rotations per second
• again, the instinctive maneover to level the wings and pull back - was countered by the knowledge that this had a 50 percent chance of taking the A/C beyond the boundry - as a result - no action was taken
• at T-0.5 seconds - some control action was being applied, but with no response - the A/C's wings were perhaps stalling or some other type of control problem
• at time "T" (-0.0 seconds), the A/C impacted the ground nose first vertical, 5 cm into the boundary (short plants), remaining vertical after impact due to leaning on those same short plants - some 150 meters distant from the PIC

Post Event

• the throttle remained closed, and the controls were still responsive (rudder, elevator) the ailerons were obviously jamming and did not have much movement
• the A/C initially appeared mostly intact despite the impact speed; however
• on closer inspection, the nose was considerable damaged and bent, and the wings were displaced
• the battery was disconnected
• video of the damage was taken
  

Post Event Analysis

• The A/C was prepared sufficiently and to the best knowledge available
  
• The flight should not have taken place due to the nature and speed of the winds
• There should have not been extra people on the field during the test flight
• Being a test flight - the Sun's position in the sky was a factor, before sunrise would be preferable - or during overcoast (nil wind day)
• The aircraft's top speed was quite high, allowing the aircraft to get a long way downrange very quickly - perhaps different propping could improve this situation
  This meant the orientation and attitude of the aircraft became ambiguous at difficult to determine quite frequently
• It is quite possible the PIC's eyesight "ain't what it used to be" or it is just that the model was faster than what he was used to
  
• The PIC was unfamiliar with A/C of type - and needed at least extra simulator training before hand
• Incorrect recovery technique was applied, however the mitagating circumstances of loss of control in general, and exceed boundary were an issue
  

Outcome

• The model could probably be repaired, with a fair amount of effort
• Rebuild nose mount, and fairing
• Re-set wing position
• Strengthen and straighten bent structural parts

Precautions for Re-flight

• Paint or indicate on wings unique colours the enable simpler attitute and orientation perception
• Experiment with pitch and prop size to "gear down" the motor, which means greater low speed thrust, at the expense of top speed (which was too fast for the area) - trials and calculations required to do this
  
• Rebalance and correct control deflections on newly rebuilt model
• Airfield to be large and unobstructed
• No extra personnel or observers on airfield
  
• Nil wind conditions
• Series of planned exercises to ensure the model is flying correctly
• Initiate landing sequence early, then re-launch
• Low - or clouded Sun if possible
  

Things to Learn

• Gusty winds not the best for initial flight of a model (including changed setups)
• Practice, train, simulate, and stay current
• More diverse training worthwhile
• If it is your model, don't let some talk you into flying it in gusty wind - they don't know what they are talking about :-)

Terms

• RC - Remote Control
• A/C - Aircraft
• PIC - Pilot in Command
• attitude - the direction the aircraft is pointing (e.g. nose high)
• orientation - the exact relative position of the aircraft with repect to the PIC - e.g. closer (left) wing down, far wing up
  
• altitude - the height above the ground
• ESC - Electronic Speed Controller
• brushless - no brushes to the commutator
  
• outrunner - the outside of the motor rotates
• propping - the configuration of the propeller - pitch and diameter
• propeller pitch - how "deep" the cut into the air is, measured in inches

Oracle's Sun acquisition

This is a good thing. We live in interesting times*. My thoughts about Oracle DBA work versus Solaris Administration and my personal and groups future seems headed toward a new direction. Although what lays ahead is not clear, it is obvious that the paths are intertwined more than ever before, if not, the same path.

It is definitely a turning point.

But what is to happen to MySQL?

* I know.

Joists explained

To explain what I was doing, and specifically answer the question, what are joists, I answered with this:

Thought # 5 - Ability

/* thought 20071207 */

people don't ever change, they discover their untapped ability

Thought # 4 - Jokes

What's disappointing is when a joke is funnier when one misinterprets it.

What's embarrassing is when it is your joke.

Embarrassing Status

Apparently it is embarrassing for someone to set their status on Facebook. I better not say that I have a blog, how doubling embarrassing.

Spiral Dive

RC. It was too windy today. I can prove it.

The blinding sun was also a factor, which happened because basically it had a mind of its own (like my mind).

It wasn't my RC, I was maiden flighting it. Sorry 'bout that, I'll make it up to him. So far, one take off - no landings.

Officially winds gusted to 19 knots, with direction changing 180 degrees. You can't even land a Cessna in that!

Loosing to Collingwood

Voss+Brown+Lions+Gabba V a pie

Should only equal ONE thing. But alas, tonight, it did not.

Why? (Monday expert mode ON)

• Rain, why did it rain? It was suppose to be fine, it was fine all day, I even left my raincoat on the kitchen bench this morning on purpose. No, that didn't have any effect on the result, it made play sloppy in places, but equally for both teams, it just effected my coffee drinking and soaked my backpack. And, Alice, I had to get my own coffee! Beers elsewhere were to be had as usual.
  
• The ascendency the Lions had in the first quarter was not capitalised on - it should have been about a 7 goal lead, but was only a few goals in it, even with a bonus 50m free and goal after the siren
  
• The second quarter was good, and was a case of holding lead, but ended on the siren with a pies goal, bring it back to a small margin.
• The third quarter - the premiership quarter, was when the Lions should have let them have it, but a wobbly (straight) goal to the wobbles inside a minute of the second half, and another, put them in the lead. The third quarter really was two teams trying to power their way through, and they nullified each other mostly. With only one more goal kicked in that quarter by the Lions, giving them the slender lead at 3/4 time.
• Sherman? He was off tonight. Coaching was on, maybe even to the point of Voss being out-coached by Malthouse. The matchups on key players were perfect, Bradshaw was kept out, and everyone else (was anyone else there?) including Brown with the usual focus of the best defenders.
• Charman got broken badly in a tackle - it didn't look good. I think both his legs are broken, well maybe not, but close to it.
  
• The forth quarter was all about the Paul Medhurst and Leon Davis show, with sloppy Lions disposal for entertainment.
• The sealer being an errant handpass when the Lions looked ready to pounce, letting through a woods goal, and that was about it.
• There wasn't too much more of a threat left in the Lions, although we all hoped for a couple of quick miracle goals to bring them back in, it wasn't to be.
• The Siren sounding, seemingly prematurely to end the match, which really was won by the better team on the night.

And one of the worst things about it was a rouge crollingwood supporter sitting next to me - being happy of all things - in such a non-happy occasion.

It was a good game though, my voice is gone, that means it was exciting.

..."Got a black magic woomeennn..."

Yes, it is gone.

Christmas Island Holiday

Christmas Island, by name sounds like it would be a fantastic place to have a holiday.

Illegal immigrant detention centres seem to dent that fantasy, however, you can still have a holiday, see this

http://downunderonline.com/Australia_Holiday_Christmas_Island.htm

Computer Games

If you are time poor, do not click on the following sites:

http://www.zachtronicsindustries.com/alchemy/alchemy.htm
(online graphical programmable puzzle - very good)

Words

I can never spell garentee correctly. :-(

I spent what seemed like the whole of grade 7 writing out 100's and 1000's of times the correct spelling of successful. I still could not spell it correctly for a few more years. That is a little bit ironic.

I can garentee that you will be a successful speller.

I still can't spell garentee as the spell checker offers these options:

• parenteral (what?)
• garments
• godparents
• garment's

I can garentee your godparents garments will be successful in their parenteral garment's spelling.

Solar Cooking

I intend to make a solar cooker. This is how far I have got:
Peak power 600 watts per square meter. So the trick is to focus the rays from one square meter at a small target volume.
If you did focus 100cm x 100cm into the small volume:

1 watt = 1g water by 1 deg C in 1 sec

200 watt = 200g water by 1 deg C in 1 sec

600 watts = 200g water by 60 deg in 60 sec

Is the maximum you could get - but that ain't bad.

Here is a cardboard box design : http://www.freewebs.com/sunnycooker/suntasticcookerplan.htm

Hyperion

Hyperion - is it going to have a resurgence?

I have a mind like a steel trap: rusty & dangerous.

Then again, my mind has a mind of its own.

Thought # 3 - Patterns

People respond to patterns, and interpret patterns to understand things.
The world is full of patterns, but these are put there by design.
The patterns we understand, are the patterns we actually put there in the first place.

[8 jan 2008]

Here is an example.

You get out of bed in the morning, again. You have done this many times before, is this a coincidence? No, why? That is because we went to bed the night before. Of course, silly. But why did you go to bed the night before? Because we were sleepy. No, Bzzt, wrong. You were sleepy all day weren't you, and then when it was time for bed, you actually couldn't sleep, but you tried everything until you could couldn't you. And Bed, why did you choose to go to sleep in a bed, why not right now in that chair, or someone else's laundry basket. Well the bed is more comfortable. Of course it is, you made it comfortable. Why? Because it is a bed. Why is it a bed? Because you need a bed to sleep in. When? When your sleepy? No, when it is night time.

I was walking along the street, feeling kind of sleepy, when I tripped over a quitely sleeping friend I knew. So as not to alarm them, I tip toed around them and promptly sat down on a conveniently placed truckload of feathers and fell as sleep until about 3pm when I felt it was time to go home and have breakfast. I waited all night for the train to arrive, but it didn't, that sometimes happens on Tuesdays, but you can never be sure.

There are no patterns in that. That would be anarchy. I look for patterns, I rely on patterns, and they are placed there by me and others for that very reason.

ambiguous

I really think that the word ambiguous should have two meanings:

• One, meaning of unclear multiple mutually exclusive meanings.
• The other meaning having a clear and concise meaning.
  

Zero Cost Hobbies

Zero cost hobbies? There can't really be any such thing. They all take money, and they all take time! However, you can come close to zero extra outlay hobbies. All of these still involve time, but, what is a hobby if it doesn't involve time? It is then someone else's hobby or non-existent. So lets assume time is the essential defining factor of a hobby. Not many of my hobbies are in the category of zero or low cost (yet). Here is a list (currently very very short) of other peoples hobbies, and a few of mine...

• Paper folding models (the fold instruction templates downloaded from the ubiquitous communication conduit)
• Photography with your standard camera (you already have the camera for other purposes)
• Programming in java
• Things To Do List making (!?) including making lists in blogs
  
• Reading other peoples books
• Entertaining children (apparently, looking after your own children is not classed as baby-sitting)
• Almost anything involving sitting in front of the computer without your credit card, and that does not involve a shopping or retail/vendor site [I envisage see a long list of disclaimers here to make this zero cost]
  

What does not constitute a hobby:

• Doing tax filing
• Anything involving water in the house

"Zero Cost Hobbies" does not even return a direct search result from Uncle Google! What?

Easter rain

Does it always rain at Easter, or does it always rain when planning RC activities in the park?

Thought # 2 - Moment of Thought

Is there a word for:

Mental Momentum

I would try and look it up, but I just can't really be bothered at the moment, I just can't get started. This is really Mental Inertia, which is the resistance to motion of a mental effort.

However, I seemed to be going along no problem mindlessly blogging... Arghhhh.... I can't stop it - help!

[Thought word from Dec 2004]

Success in failure

When an unsuspecting blog reader says they are having a not very good* evening after reading your blog, you have succeeded in the predicted failure as posted previously :-)

* not very good replaces a specific word that indicates "not very good".

Thought # 1 - Reality

Not so randomly selected, as it is the oldest one in my "thought" directory - perhaps, my oldest thought - no definitely not, as I am sure I'll find some earlier thoughts, perhaps stored - oh, in another directory. I no longer use neurons for storing long term information.

reality is just an implementation of models

No... what? That doesn't make sense now, does it? Let me thing about it a while and get back to, umm you? the world? me? someone... that person who unsuspectingly will be getting and reading this (once).

Thought from 23 Nov 2004.

Blog like no-one is reading it!

Well, this is good advice from myself to myself (allow me to..???). And I am quite entitled to give that advice as it is actually true. No-one Could be reading this blog, being a test and all.
That being said, I will send this link to a friend in order to annoy her... Here we go...
(She will read all entries, suspecting there might been some reason, and discover there is none). Life's like that. I'm teaching her a good lesson.

Meaning of Easter

When did easter turn, not only into a chocolate-fest, but into a mini-christmas present like occasion.

The easter bunny, and even the easter bilby didn't even get around to hidding eggs around the yard! Slack! Well, he did hide them in a "virtual" computerised world. (To my good friend, no, it is not Sad to hide virtualised easter eggs, I think.)

Still can't really use Facebook

I still don't really get how to use Facebook. (Maybe I don't want to know how).

Facebook Friend Culling

I'm reading an article in the local Train-Newspaper that discusses facebook friend culling and how to go about it. It says review every 6 months and trim 10% right away.
I'm seeing a parallel with household budgeting that I am currently doing.
Why?

Did you just misspel...

My speling is perfect! The blog's naming was completely intentional, imagine my surprise when no one had thought of misspelling the blog title exactly like me!
Is blog one or to g's? blogg? Hmmm I don't know.

Just a Test

Oh, this is just a test. Only a test. Please do not read.

I said: Do Not Read.

Have I become Technologically old?

Yes, I know what a BLORG is. A BLOG, that's what I said.

Well sought of... What does it do, why would you use it?

Oh, I could have a blog if I wanted to, why not? Well I don't need one yet. (What does it do for you again?)

BACK IN MY DAY... I remember telling the world around me computers were great and amazing and you can do all these things with them, one day EVERY house might even have a computer and you would be able to talk to other people through bulletin boards like the one I was running. Did they really believe me? No... But now, I am no longer the master, I am but the pupil.